MRR Projection Calculator

The calculator

The MRR Projection Calculator is a white-labeled scenario planning tool that models a SaaS business’s revenue growth over 12 or 24 months. It separates the four components of MRR movement — new MRR, expansion MRR, churned MRR, and contraction MRR — and shows founders exactly how each lever affects their revenue trajectory.

It’s a lead magnet for SaaS founders who are trying to plan growth, raise funding, or understand which MRR lever to focus on.

The math it does

Inputs:

• Current MRR
• New customers per month (or new MRR per month from new customers)
• Average ARPA of new customers
• Monthly churn rate %
• Monthly expansion rate % (NRR contribution from existing customers)
• Contraction rate % (downgrades, optional)
• Monthly growth rate in new customer acquisition % (how fast you’re growing acquisition)

Outputs — per month for 12 or 24 months:

New MRR (month N) = new customers × ARPA × (1 + acquisition growth rate)^N

Expansion MRR (month N) = active MRR (month N-1) × expansion rate

Churned MRR (month N) = active MRR (month N-1) × churn rate

Net new MRR (month N) = new MRR + expansion MRR − churned MRR − contraction MRR

Active MRR (month N) = active MRR (month N-1) + net new MRR (month N)

The result is a monthly MRR table and a chart showing MRR trajectory over the projection period.

What the output tells the founder

The calculator runs three scenarios simultaneously — base case, optimistic, and pessimistic — using ±15% variance on the key inputs. The output shows:

• MRR at month 12 and 24 for each scenario.
• Which lever matters most — a sensitivity analysis showing which of the four MRR components (new, expansion, churn, contraction) has the biggest impact on the 12-month outcome given the current numbers.
• Churn breakeven — the new customer acquisition rate needed to maintain flat MRR if churn stays at its current level.
• NRR impact — if expansion rate is above churn rate, the calculator highlights the NRR > 100% state and projects what MRR looks like if the team focuses on expansion vs acquisition.

The sensitivity analysis — the most valuable output

Most SaaS founders focus on new customer acquisition as the primary growth lever. But for many businesses, the highest-ROI lever is different:

• Early stage (under $50k MRR): new MRR typically dominates.
• Growth stage ($50k–$500k MRR): churn reduction often has as much impact as new acquisition, at lower cost.
• Scale stage ($500k+ MRR): expansion revenue (NRR above 100%) becomes the most capital-efficient growth lever.

The sensitivity analysis in the calculator tells each founder which stage they’re in and which lever to pull next. This makes it a high-value tool for the exact audience the snapshot serves.

How it’s used as a lead magnet

When a founder submits their numbers:

1. The projection results are displayed in-browser.
2. GHL captures the email + key inputs: current MRR, churn rate, acquisition rate.
3. A segmented follow-up sequence fires based on their primary constraint:
   • High churn (>5%): churn recovery content + the SaaS Snapshot churn module pitch.
   • Low expansion (NRR < 100%): expansion revenue content + the expansion module pitch.
   • Strong metrics (NRR > 110%, churn < 3%): PLG and scaling content.

Where it lives in the snapshot

• Standalone tools page — /tools/mrr-projection (this page, white-labeled).
• Homepage as a secondary lead magnet alongside the LTV:CAC calculator.
• Embedded in blog posts on MRR growth, fundraising, and SaaS metrics.
• Pricing page — a “model your ROI” framing adjacent to the pricing table.